Missed opportunities cost Colts
Football Betting Lines
02/08/2010 - Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Peyton Manning was one quarter away from capturing his second Super Bowl title in four years, but the four-time league MVP didn't get enough support from his teammates, and in the end a costly interception proved part of the downfall for the Indianapolis Colts.
Four years ago, Manning reached the summit by leading the Colts over Chicago in Miami to win the Super Bowl. Same stadium, same game, different result against a team that was destiny's pick - the New Orleans Saints.
Manning threw an interception that was returned 74 yards for a touchdown by Tracy Porter late in the fourth quarter to seal New Orleans' 31-17 win in Super Bowl XLIV.
"I don't think it will have any bearing on his legacy," Colts coach Jim Caldwell said of the interception. "Obviously, he's a great player. It never comes down to just one single play in the game."
For everything that went right for the Colts in the first quarter, periods two and four were the complete opposite. The Colts dominated the opening quarter, outgaining the Saints in yardage, 154-36. The Saints ran just 10 offensive plays in the period, but the Colts had just six in the second quarter. Indy was outgained 143-15 in the second quarter, but still maintained a 10-6 lead.
The turning point of the game though came on the opening play of the second half when rookie kicker Thomas Morstead, actually the Saints' punter, put down a perfect onside kick. Colts wide receiver Hank Baskett was in position to come up with the ball, but it squirted away and New Orleans' Jonathan Casillas came away with the football.
The Saints scored a touchdown on the ensuing drive, part of a 31-7 surge in points to end the game for New Orleans in that franchise's first Super Bowl title.
"They kind of kept the momentum from there," Manning said. "We just didn't play well enough in certain times and in certain phases."
Manning finished 31-of-45 for 333 yards with a TD pass to Pierre Garcon to cap a 96-yard drive in the opening quarter.
The Colts had their opportunities, but they never got a sustained pass rush and one dropped pass in particular hurt their chances.
Dwight Freeney started for the Colts despite playing with a torn ligament in his right ankle. He had a one-handed sack of Saints quarterback Drew Brees in the second quarter, preventing a possible drive for a touchdown and limiting New Orleans to three points. Freeney had the ankle re-taped, but wasn't much of a factor in the second half.
"I tried to figure out ways to keep it warm, keep it going," Freeney said. "The problem is once it gets stiff it's tough to bring it back."
Joseph Addai was the catalyst on offense for Indianapolis. He had 13 rushes for 77 yards and a TD and caught seven passes for 58 yards.
Already ahead 10-0 in the second quarter and facing a third down at their own 28, Garcon dropped a sure first-down catch with plenty of open space ahead.
Even when they were up 17-16 early in the fourth, the Colts couldn't add to their lead as Matt Stover's 51-yard field goal hooked wide left. The Saints went ahead on the next possession when Brees connected with Jeremy Shockey for a two-yard TD pass.
"They just made the plays," Colts offensive lineman Jeff Saturday said. "The bottom line is when the game was on the line they made the plays and we didn't."
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In a city that has struggled in both the world of sports and in day-to-day life, Drew Brees has brought a smile to the faces of the New Orleans residents. The party will be rocking for the next few days in the B
<< Line of Scrimmage: Saints' Night, Manning's Nightmare
Miami Gardens, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Raise your umbrella and your Hurricane
glass to the New Orleans Saints, who are Super Bowl XLIV champions because
they were flat-out better than the Colts in an incredible, exhilarating upset
victory that ca
<< Bellucci beats Monaco in Chile final
Santiago, Chile (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brazil's Thomaz Bellucci defeated
Argentina's Juan Monaco to win the $450,000 Movistar Open tennis event on
Sunday.
The third-seeded Bellucci downed the second-seeded Monaco 6-2, 0-6, 6-4 in
just over two
<< Who Dat? Super Bowl champs! Saints rally to beat Colts
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Who Dat? Those are the Super Bowl champions -
the New Orleans Saints - for the first time in the history of a franchise and
city that has witnessed its share of tough times.
Drew Brees connected with Jeremy Shock
<< Indy holds slim lead going into fourth quarter
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joseph Addai's four-yard touchdown run in the
third quarter has helped the Colts grab a tenuous 17-16 lead over New Orleans
heading into the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLIV.
Drew Brees has lit a fire for the Sa
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Orlando Magic hope to carry the momentum from their big win at Boston into tonight's home tilt versus the New Orleans Hornets at Amway Arena. Orlando posted a 96-89 triumph over the Celtics on Sunday at TD Garden, as
Mavs kick off road trip in Oakland vs. Warriors >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Southwest Division-leading Dallas Mavericks will hit
the road for three games starting with Monday's contest against the Golden
State Warriors at ORACLE Arena.
Dallas will also visit Denver and Oklahoma City on the roa
Spurs resume road trip against Lakers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Antonio Spurs face the toughest test of their
annual Rodeo Road Trip when they face the defending NBA champion Los Angeles
Lakers at Staples Center tonight.
Each year around this time the Spurs hit the road
Colonials face tall task in clash with Panthers >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Panthers take a break from
their Big East Conference schedule this evening to battle the Robert Morris
Colonials of the Northeast Conference at the Petersen Events Center in the
Steel City.
R
Villanova visits West Virginia in Big East showdown >>
Morgantown, WV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fresh off their first Big East Conference
loss of the season, the Villanova Wildcats will attempt to get back on track
in Morgantown against the West Virginia Mountaineers this evening.
Villanova dropped a 1
How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.