Braves edge Phils in 10 innings at Turner Field
Baseball Betting Lines
06/30/2009 - Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Gregor Blanco scored the winning run in the 10th inning as part of a three-hit night, and Martin Prado drove him in as part of a four-RBI evening, as Atlanta used the big bats from two unlikely sources to down Philadelphia, 5-4, at Turner Field.
The first of three contests between National League East rivals came down to Philadelphia's failure to hold three separate leads, and the career nights for both Blanco and Prado, who was initially penciled into the eighth hole before late adjustments found him hitting second.
Blanco, who came into the game with a .148 batting average, and Prado combined to go 7-for-10 with three runs scored. Atlanta snapped a nine-game home losing streak to the Phillies and won its second consecutive game overall.
Jeff Francoeur finished 2-for-5 with an RBI and Peter Moylan (2-2) picked up the victory with two-thirds of an inning pitched. Starter Derek Lowe labored through six frames, allowing seven hits and three walks for two runs along with four strikeouts.
Chase Utley, John Mayberry and Pedro Feliz all homered and Ryan Howard also knocked in a run for the Phillies, who saw their brief two-game winning streak come to an end. Chan Ho Park (3-2) took the loss, allowing the deciding run on three hits in two-thirds of a frame.
Starter Joe Blanton gave up three runs on eight hits with three walks and three strikeouts over five frames. Jimmy Rollins returned from a four-game, five-day sabbatical to clear his head and fix his swing to uninspiring results, finishing 0-for-5 to make him hitless in his last 24 official at- bats.
The bottom of the 10th got going with Matt Diaz's one-out single and he aggressively advanced to third on Blanco's single to left. Prado then drilled an inside fastball from Park over the drawn-in Mayberry to win the game.
Two frames earlier, the Braves tied the game off Ryan Madson. Blanco walked with two outs, moved to second on a wild pick-off attempt and scored on Prado's double down the line in right.
The game was highlighted by several missed opportunities on both sides in the early going. A Jayson Werth walk and Greg Dobbs double off the glove of Blanco in the second forced a Feliz walk to set up a match-up between the sinker- baller Lowe and the slow-footed Carlos Ruiz, who eventually beat a ball into a 5-3 double play.
Atlanta also loaded the bases in the bottom half, but like Lowe, Blanton wiggled out of any damage by inducing a popup from the opposing hurler.
The Phillies used some two-out offense to tally the game's first run in the third. Shane Victorino singled, Utley punched a roller in-between the vacated shortstop position and third then Howard laced a low slider over Francoeur's head and the wall for a run-scoring double.
Atlanta's makeshift top of the order did some damage in the home half, as Blanco tugged a low curveball down the first-base line and into the corner for a triple. Prado then laced a run-scoring single to left.
Utley hit the first home run Lowe has allowed to a left-handed batter this season in the fifth, crushing a flat sinker deep into the right-field seats for a 2-1 game.
Prado got it right back with one swing as he started the home fifth with a line drive just over the left-field wall. Atlanta took the lead later in the inning on Francoeur's bases-loaded groundout, but again left the bases loaded with Lowe making the final out.
Lowe worked his way out of more trouble in the sixth, putting runners on second and third before striking out pinch-hitter Chris Coste to conclude the frame.
However, the Phillies showcased the lumber and hit the first two homers Braves relief pitcher Mike Gonzalez has allowed to right-handed hitters this season. Mayberry hit the first, a line-drive shot that was just high enough over the center-field wall then Feliz cleared the left-field wall for back-to-back homers and 4-3 lead.
Game Notes
Werth reached bases safely in 11 straight plate appearances before flying out to center in the third...The Phillies fell to 6-5 in extra innings while the Braves improved to 5-3...Prado's home run was his 4th of the season...Mayberry has also hit four, Feliz now eight and Utley slugged his 17th home run of the campaign for the Phillies...Utley made his sixth error...The Braves left 14 men on base...Attendance 31,818.
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Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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